Global carbon emissions dip 0.4% as high oil prices bite

Emissions fall for once, but not for the usual reason

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are set to fall by about 0.4 percent this year, according to an analysis published by Ars Technica. The figures come from a team at the University of East Anglia working with the Global Carbon Project, a research effort that tracks carbon pollution worldwide.

The researchers say the decline is not a sign that the world has turned a corner on climate change. They link it to the war in Iran, which pushed up oil prices and cut oil use. Without that shock, emissions would have risen again in 2026.

The study appeared in the journal Nature Climate Change on 10 November 2026.

Oil down, coal up in this year's figures

The drop is uneven across fuels. Emissions from oil fell by 1.9 percent, while emissions from natural gas use slipped by 0.3 percent. Coal emissions, however, rose by 0.6 percent.

The picture differs sharply from 2020, when the pandemic cut energy demand across the board. This time, demand for energy actually grew. New electric vehicles and added solar and wind generation covered almost 70 percent of that growth, which is why emissions still edged down.

Electric vehicles account for only about 20 percent of the fall in oil emissions. The researchers therefore attribute the bulk of the oil decline to high prices rather than to cleaner transport.

Clean technology is bending the curve

The analysis also looked at longer trends. Between 2019 and 2025, 59 countries managed to cut their emissions even as their economies grew. Over the same period, global fossil fuel emissions rose by 0.8 percent per year on average.

Last year was slightly worse than that average, with emissions up 1.2 percent. The researchers estimate that without the spread of electric vehicles and renewable power, the yearly increase between 2019 and 2025 would have reached 1.9 percent.

In other words, clean technology is absorbing most of the extra demand that economic growth creates, but not quite all of it.

A peak may be close, but it has not arrived

Using economic growth projections from the International Monetary Fund through 2028, the researchers expect fossil fuel emissions to keep rising overall. That includes this year, once the effect of high oil prices is set aside.

The team writes that if the roll-out of clean technology can keep accelerating, a lasting peak and fall in worldwide emissions could be a few years away. For now, the 2026 dip looks like a temporary pause caused by geopolitics and prices, not the start of a steady decline.